Is Crypto in a Bull Market? Signs, Signals, and Strategy

Published On: 2025-11-14

Prepared by Jameson Richman and our team of experts with over a decade of experience in cryptocurrency and digital asset analysis. Learn more about us.

Wondering is crypto in a bull market? This article explains how to answer that question rigorously — not by headlines or hype, but using concrete price action, on-chain metrics, derivatives signals, market breadth, and macro factors. You’ll get a clear checklist to evaluate market direction, real-world examples from prior bull runs, trading and risk-management strategies for bullish environments, and curated resources to research promising opportunities and market makers. By the end you’ll be able to decide for yourself whether the current conditions meet the criteria for a sustainable crypto bull market.

What exactly defines a crypto bull market?

A “bull market” is more than a few days of rising prices — it’s a sustained period of generally rising prices, increased participation, and improving market structure. For traditional markets, the rule-of-thumb is a 20%+ rise from lows after which sentiment turns positive. In crypto, because volatility is higher, a bull market is often characterized by:

Consistent higher highs and higher lows: Price charts showing an uptrend across key timeframes (daily, weekly).
Rising market capitalization: Total crypto market cap increases with breadth (many coins participating).
Improving on-chain fundamentals: Active addresses, transaction volume, and accumulation signals grow.
Healthy trading volume and liquidity: Volume confirms price moves, not just isolated pumps.
Positive derivatives signals: Sustainable positive funding rates, rising open interest without runaway leverage.
Macro tailwinds: Supportive liquidity, easier regulatory clarity, or meaningful adoption events (e.g., ETF approvals).

See Investopedia’s overview of market cycles for context on how uptrends fit within broader cycles: Investopedia — Bull Market.

Key indicators to answer “is crypto in a bull market?”

Rather than relying on any single signal, assess multiple categories of indicators. Below are the most reliable signals used by institutional traders, on-chain analysts, and experienced investors.

1. Price action and technical structure

Higher highs / higher lows: On daily and weekly charts, bullish structure is essential. A break of the prior swing high followed by a higher low confirms trend continuation.
Moving averages: Price above long-term moving averages (50-, 100-, 200-day MA) and bullish MA crossovers (e.g., 50-day crossing above 200-day) support bull-market claims.
Momentum indicators: RSI, MACD, and ADX showing sustained momentum without extreme overbought exhaustion suggest a healthy run.

2. Volume and liquidity

Volume should confirm upward moves. Rising price with declining volume may indicate a weak rally. Look for increasing spot volume and exchange liquidity — deep order books make moves more sustainable.

3. Market breadth

In real bull markets, participation widens — altcoins join the rally, not just Bitcoin. Measure breadth by:

Number of coins making new 30/90/180-day highs.
Proportion of altcoin market-cap growth versus Bitcoin dominance declines (or controlled decline depending on cycle stage).

For analysis of which altcoins could perform well as markets turn bullish, see this comprehensive guide to promising altcoins for 2025: Most promising altcoins in 2025 — a comprehensive investment guide.

4. On-chain metrics

On-chain data helps separate speculation from real adoption. Key metrics include:

Active addresses and new addresses: Sustained increases in new wallets engaging with the network.
Transaction volume and value: Higher on-chain transaction value often precedes price appreciation for utility-driven coins.
MVRV and SOPR: Metrics that measure profit-taking vs. accumulation. Healthy bull markets have rising MVRV with periodic dips for consolidation.
Whale accumulation: Large addresses accumulating (not just moving between exchanges) is often bullish.

For technical on-chain interpretation, analytics platforms like Glassnode and CoinMetrics are widely used. For a high-level primer on blockchain technology, see the Blockchain article on Wikipedia.

5. Derivatives and leverage signals

Derivatives markets can amplify trends but also create fragile rallies when overleveraged:

Funding rates: Persistent positive funding rates show buyers are paying to keep long positions, but extreme highs often precede corrections.
Open interest: Rising open interest with price increases supports trend strength; explosive OI growth driven by retail leverage is a red flag.
Liquidations: Frequent large liquidations signal a tilted market and greater short-term risk.

6. Sentiment and macro context

Sentiment indexes (like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index), Google Trends for “buy bitcoin,” and social volumes help. Macro themes — interest rates, liquidity, and regulatory developments — are critical. For the U.S. regulatory stance and investor guidance, consult official sources such as the SEC investor education pages: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Investor.gov.

On-chain tools and data applied: practical metrics

Here are practical on-chain metrics and thresholds that traders use to help determine a bull market:

Active addresses 30–90 day trend: A sustained 10–20% increase over multiple months is notable.
Exchange net flows: Healthy bull markets often show net outflows to cold wallets (accumulation) rather than inflows to exchanges.
SOPR crossing back above 1: Indicates realized profits exceed costs consistently — bullish when sustained.
Realized volatility vs. implied volatility: If implied vol remains low relative to realized but price moves strongly higher, it signals confident buyers.

Combine these with on-chain heat maps and whale-tracking alerts to detect genuine accumulation versus pump-and-dump activity.

Historical case studies — what past bull markets teach us

Two useful comparisons are the 2017 and 2020–2021 cycles:

2017

Bitcoin and many altcoins surged rapidly. Retail-driven speculation, ICO mania, and limited institutional participation made the rally vertical and unstable. Price topped quickly with severe drawdowns and regulatory backlash. Lesson: rapid parabolic moves without strong on-chain adoption or institutional support are vulnerable to large corrections.

2020–2021

This bull run had clearer macro and institutional tailwinds: monetary stimulus, major companies and funds allocating to Bitcoin, and the Grayscale to ETF narrative. Participation widened into DeFi and later NFTs. The rally was longer and had phases of consolidation that allowed higher-quality projects to survive and build. Lesson: sustained structural adoption and macro tailwinds create more durable bull markets.

When deciding is crypto in a bull market, compare current signals to both these archetypes: is the rally retail-driven and narrow (2017-like) or supported by structural adoption (2020–21-like)?

Altcoins in a bull market: rotation and selection

Altcoins often outperform in the mid/late stages of bull markets as capital rotates out of Bitcoin seeking higher returns. Consider:

Market-cap positioning: Small-caps run faster but carry more risk. Mid-cap projects often balance upside and risk.
Sector themes: Layer-1s, rollups, decentralized finance (DeFi), AI-related chains, and infrastructure projects often attract capital in cycles.
Project fundamentals: Developer activity, tokenomics, and working product demos matter when markets cool.

For curated research and altcoin picks to monitor as markets shift, see this detailed guide on promising altcoins for 2025: Promising altcoins in 2025.

Common bullish traps and how to avoid them

Even in bull markets, traders encounter traps:

Fakeouts: Short sharp breakouts that reverse. Avoid over-leveraging and wait for confirmation (retest or sustained volume).
News pumps: Price spikes tied only to announcements often fade if fundamentals don’t follow.
Overleveraged rallies: High funding rates and open interest spikes can trigger violent liquidations and sharp corrections.
Herd chasing: Fear of missing out (FOMO) causes retail to buy at tops. Use scale-in strategies and set pre-defined risk levels.

Practical trading and investing strategies in a bull market

Whether you’re a trader or a long-term investor, structure your strategy for the market environment.

For traders

Use trend-following tools: Moving average crossovers, ADX, and trendlines help capture extended moves.
Scale positions: Build a position in tranches rather than all-in at once.
Protect profits: Use trailing stops or scale out partial profits at predefined resistance levels.
Watch derivatives risk: Monitor funding rates and open interest. Reduce leverage when funding spikes.

For investors

Allocate by thesis: Identify a few high-conviction projects and allocate capital according to risk tolerance.
Dollar-cost average (DCA): Spread purchases over time to reduce entry-timing risk.
Take partial gains: Lock in profits periodically to de-risk and reallocate to new opportunities.

Advanced approach: hybrid

Many sophisticated participants use a hybrid approach — keep a core long-term holding while actively trading a smaller allocation to capture bull-market alpha. That helps benefit from both long-term adoption and short-term price appreciation.

Market maker activity and institutional participation

Institutional and market-maker activities often signal higher market maturity. Market makers improve liquidity and reduce spreads, which can support larger inflows. For a deep dive into market maker companies and how they operate in modern markets, read this guide: Guide to crypto market maker companies in 2025.

Where to trade and how to choose an exchange

Choosing reputable exchanges matters when liquidity and execution affect outcomes. Consider reputation, security, fees, product range, and regulatory standing. If you’re opening accounts, these major exchanges are commonly used (affiliate links):

Always use exchanges that support secure practices (2FA, withdrawal whitelist) and consider storing large, long-term holdings in hardware wallets rather than exchanges. The SEC’s investor guidance on custody and protection is a useful resource: SEC investor education.

Risk management and safety best practices

Every bull market includes corrections. Protect capital with disciplined risk management:

Position sizing: Never risk more than a small percentage of your portfolio on a single trade (common rule: 1–3%).
Stop-losses and trailing stops: Use them to lock in profits and limit downside.
Diversification: Spread across top-cap coins and selective altcoins with good fundamentals.
On-chain verification: Verify token contracts and liquidity sources to avoid scams.
Use reputable custodians: For institutional-sized holdings, consider regulated custodial services.

Actionable checklist: Are we in a bull market?

Use this checklist to evaluate the market. If most of these are true, the probability of a bull market increases.

Bitcoin and major caps show higher highs/higher lows on weekly charts.
Price trades and holds above long-term MAs (50/100/200-day).
Rising spot volume confirms price advances across many exchanges.
On-chain metrics (active addresses, transaction value) are trending up.
Net flows indicate accumulation (withdrawals from exchanges into cold wallets).
Derivatives show positive but not extreme funding rates, and OI growth is steady, not explosive.
Market breadth improves — more altcoins making significant gains.
Macro environment is supportive (liquidity, institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments).

If at least 5–6 items are positive and none show extreme leverage or speculative mania, the environment is more consistent with a sustainable bull market. If many items show overextension (extreme funding rates, parabolic OI spikes, and narrow participation), the rally may be a shorter-term spike — not a mature bull market.

Examples and scenarios

Consider two scenarios to apply the checklist:

Scenario A — Early bull market

Bitcoin breaks a multi-month resistance and establishes a higher low.
On-chain activity shows steady increases in new addresses and net exchange outflows.
Altcoins begin to lead small rallies but breadth is still limited.

Action: Gradually increase exposure, favor high-conviction assets, use DCA, and prepare to add on confirmed breadth expansion.

Scenario B — Parabolic spike

Massive 30–50% moves in a few days driven by social media and hype.
Funding rates and OI spike to extreme levels; many retail long liquidations occur.
On-chain adoption metrics don’t show sustained improvements.

Action: Be cautious. If you entered early, consider taking significant profits. If you’re a new entrant, wait for consolidation and confirmation of structural improvement.

If you’re still unsure — practical next steps

When in doubt, follow a disciplined approach:

Create a watchlist of top coins and constructive altcoins. Monitor liquidity and development activity.
Set alerts for key price levels and on-chain metric thresholds.
Allocate capital according to risk tolerance and use DCA to reduce timing risk.
Study leading indicators and keep a trading journal to learn from outcomes.

For price prediction context and scenario planning across specific tokens (XRP, Cardano, Plasma solutions), see this technical and scenario-based article: Crypto price prediction: XRP, Plasma, Cardano — scenarios, signals, and strategy.

Final thoughts: answering “is crypto in a bull market”

There’s no single definitive answer that fits all timeframes. The question is crypto in a bull market requires a multi-dimensional check of price structure, volume, on-chain fundamentals, derivatives risk, market breadth, and macro context. Use the checklist and indicators above to form a balanced view. If most indicators align positively without extreme leverage or speculative mania, then the probability of a bull market is higher. If the rally is narrow, highly leveraged, and lacks fundamental support, treat it as a risky short-term pump rather than a durable bull market.

Keep researching, stay disciplined with risk management, and use reputable platforms and resources to execute trades and custody assets. For continued market analysis and deeper guides on market makers and altcoin selection, refer to the market maker guide and altcoin research linked above.

Additional reputable resources:

If you’d like, I can create a personalized checklist for your portfolio, scan on-chain metrics for specific coins, or set up suggested alert levels for exchanges like Binance, MEXC, Bitget, or Bybit to help you act when signals align:

Tell me which coins you follow, and I’ll run the checklist and provide a market-structure update tailored to them.